PS2 Launch Part 2: Reality Check?

As we told you yesterday, some DCTP forumers have been forming a reality check of sorts. The thread was started by Johnny Awesome, and here’s what he said:

The PS2 hype has seriously gotten out of control. News sites are reporting the “internet capabilities” of the PS2 even. Unbelievable how bad video game journalism as gotten.

Let’s look at the real story.

1) Unique Features:

PS2: DVD without remote control.
DC: Built-in modem.

Personally I’m going to have a lot more fun playing Chu2 online than I am fighting over the PS2 when my girlfriend wants to watch a movie. I sure hope my dog doesn’t trip over the controller cord!

Seriously, the pack in modem is way more useful to me than DVD.

2) Graphics horsepower:

640×480 @ 60 fps is around 18 million pixels/second. This is around 6 million pps (given 3 pixel polygons). Does anyone honestly think that the PS2 at 6 million pps is going to look that much better than 3.5 million pps (Echo, Shenmue, MSR)on DC? I seriously doubt it. When you add to that the lack of texture compression and VRAM on the PS2 and you really have to wonder what all the fuss is about. Look at the movies! 640×240? Bad aliasing problems? Frame rate stuttering? The PS2 movies look plain uninspiring.

3) Price/Profit/Time to market:

PS2: $370 Price/-$180 Cost/1.5 years after DC.
DC: $180 Price/-$20 Loss/1.5 years before PS2.

Unbelievable. The PSX sold software at 9:1. If games retail for $50 with EB buying them for $30 then the absolute most Sony can be making from game sales is $15 after marketing and production costs. At 9:1 it isn’t even possible for Sony to break even on the initial units.

I really think that this will be Sony’s downfall. They’re counting on lowering costs over the life of the unit, but I don’t think they’ve been at all realistic in their projections.

4) Third Party Support:

This is the big DC weakness at the moment. But, I think you’ll find that in the wake of a lacklustre PS2 launch in Japan (not enough units to meet demand due to production problems) you’ll see more and more software announced for DC.

5) Software in general:

In 2000 there is no way anyone could argue the PS2 lineup over the DC lineup. With Echo, Shenmue, Sega GT, Sonic2, NFL/NBA 2K1, PSO, Grandia2, Sakura Wars, Powerstone 2….

I could go on and on… the DC’s lineup is nothing short of unbelievable.

The PS2 is all hype and too little, too late. I might look at it in 2001, but 2000 belongs to Dreamcast!

This sparked a bit of discussion, including some of the technical faults of the PS2 (RR5 have pop-up, GT 2000 has slowdown, etc.) But a thread started claimed that PS2 launch was dead compared to the DC launches. Dreamcaster started the thread:

I remember us all going crazy when the DC was going to be launched in Japan and here! websites were buzzin’, there were pics all over the place. It was cool.
Maybe it’s just because it’s Friday here and maybe things will get busy Monday but right now it just seems quiet. Kinda feels like how I felt when I went to go get NiGHTS on launch day and only the hardcore (other 4 people) were there waiting for it to come in. Was the PSX2 launch too hyped? well we all know it was but sheesh. This is pretty horrid.

I remember the DC launching here and I will never forget when Chums and I went to Hollywood video in Westwood for DC rental launch night…the lights…the stars…the cops…KROQ…it was cool. Then there was 9*9*99…Zero hour…a line of over 100 people at a Glendale galleria. A red carpet at Northridge mall here in the valley. It was great! With all the hype that Sony put behind the psx2…it’s just blah. Dreamcast has it’s place in the Guinness book and a place in this gamers heart as the greatest launch I’ve ever witnessed. Now. lets all take a moment to reflect on Bernie Stolar. Thank You.

Dural responded with this bit of information stating that one could not export their PS2! Here’s the article posted:

Sources in Japan told us that the PlayStation 2 would have strict export controls, keeping it from being sent out of Japan to the United States, or any other country. Also Japanese import companies who planned to import this system are worried about losing money . Why has Japan taken such strong measures against the export of the system? They’ve classified it as a “super computer,” and they are worried that it could be used against them for malicious purposes by other governments. Also close examination of the PlayStation 2’s box has confirmed this.
The box reads something like this: This is notification that you, as a purchaser of the PlayStation 2 console & PlayStation 2 memory card, are prohibited to export these products without authorization by the Minister of International Trade and Industry except under special circumstances which meet the requirements of the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Laws as both products are categorized as Export Control Goods.

Dural said this afterward:

The specs are absurd, and so is the hype, but that above beats it all.

But with this reality check comes some bad news which is sure to strike fear into DC owners: Somewhere in the ballpark of 500K-980,000 consoles have been sold, depending on your view. This comes in just 3 days, but Sony did fall short of its goal for 2 million consoles sold in 2 days. The 980,000 mark comes as the number shipped to retail stores, as it stands right now, but from what we’ve heard, the true figure is about 720,000. This still isn’t really official due to so many conflicts in reports, so stay tuned. If this is any indication, DC owners do have a lot to be worried about.